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Biden administration officials, worried that a growing conflict in the Middle East could send global oil prices soaring, are looking for ways to hold down American gasoline prices if such a jump occurs. President Biden tapped the reserve aggressively last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices skyrocketing, leaving the amount of oil in those reserves at historically low levels. The conflict in the Middle East has not yet sent oil prices surging. Administration officials are wary of the possibility that prices could again jump above $5 a gallon, a level they briefly touched in the spring of 2022. “In some ways, they’ve missed the boat.”

Persons: Biden, That’s, Mr, ”, Amrita Sen, Sen, “, they’ve Organizations: Biden, nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, AAA Locations: Saudi Arabia, Gulf of Mexico, Ukraine, Israel, Iran

American families saw the largest jump in their wealth on record between 2019 and 2022, according to Federal Reserve data released on Wednesday, as rising stock indexes, climbing home prices and repeated rounds of government stimulus left people’s finances healthier. At the same time, median family income increased by 3 percent between 2018 and 2021 after subtracting out price increases. While income gains were most pronounced for the affluent, the data showed clearly that Americans made nearly across-the-board financial progress in the three years that include the pandemic. But the Fed report, which is released every three years, is considered the gold standard in data about the financial circumstances of households. It offers the most comprehensive snapshot of everything from savings to stock ownership across racial, wealth and age groups.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed’s Survey, Consumer Finances

☆ Pay Gains Are Slowing, Easing Worries on Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

American workers got smaller pay increases in August. But the slowdown in wage gains is consistent with other evidence suggesting a gradual cooling in the labor market. For workers, the pain of slower wage growth is being offset, at least to some degree, by cooling inflation. Price increases outpaced pay gains for much of last year, but that trend has since reversed. Pay, adjusted for inflation, has risen in recent months; the Labor Department will release August price data later this month.

Persons: Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Employers, Labor Department

☆ Fresh Look at Data Shaves Just a Hair Off U.S. Job Growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The red-hot American job market might be just a couple of degrees cooler than previously believed. There were 306,000 fewer nonagricultural jobs in the United States in March than initially reported, according to revised data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday. That suggests employers added jobs at a slightly slower rate in 2022 and early 2023 than more timely — but less accurate — monthly data suggested. The recent strength of the job market has surprised economists, who expected the rapid increase in interest rates to lead to a more significant slowdown in hiring. Some forecasters thought that the monthly jobs figures were overstating hiring, and that the annual update would show a substantial downward revision.

Organizations: Labor Department Locations: United States

Competition for workers is fierce: The Wendy’s on Mr. Bellman’s drive home from work advertises wages of $18 an hour. New Hampshire is surrounded by states where the minimum wage is above $13, so if Granite State employers tried to offer substantially less, many workers could cross the border for a bigger paycheck. Paige Roberts, president and chief executive of the Jackson County Chamber of Commerce in Mississippi, said she was “nearly laughed out of a job” when she started asking members about paying the minimum wage. Faster hikes in the wage floor in the late 2010s forced up long-stagnant wages in fields like restaurants and retail. And some businesses, such as summer camps, say they are still paying the minimum wage for entry-level workers or those in training.

Persons: Bellman’s, Mr, Bellman, Paige Roberts Organizations: Granite, Jackson County Chamber of Commerce Locations: New Hampshire, Granite State, Alabama, Mississippi, Jackson County

Good news is bad news: It had been the mantra in economic circles ever since inflation took off in early 2021. A strong job market and rapid consumer spending risked fueling further price increases and evoking a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve. But suddenly, good news is starting to feel good again. Inflation has finally begun to moderate in earnest, even as economic growth has remained positive and the labor market has continued to chug along. The economy could still be in for a big slowdown as the full impact of the Fed’s higher borrowing costs is felt.

Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: chug

Government data released Tuesday showed that boom continued in June, with spending on manufacturing facilities up nearly 80 percent over the past year. The manufacturing sector as a whole has added nearly 800,000 jobs since Mr. Biden took office and now employs the most people since 2008. Measures by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board suggest consumers have grown happier with the current state of the economy and more hopeful about the year ahead. Hourly wages outpaced price gains in the spring for the first time in two years, giving consumers more purchasing power. National opinion polls still show a sour economic mood — but it appears to be improving slightly.

Persons: Biden, ”, Joseph Brusuelas Organizations: RSM, University of Michigan, Conference Board, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena

☆ Wage Growth Slowed in Second Quarter, a Sign the Economy is Cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Wage growth, by various measures, has softened in recent months, but inflation has fallen by even more. Workers are better off as a result: Pay, adjusted for inflation, rose in the second quarter for the first time in two years. The slowdown in wage growth has surprised some economists because the unemployment rate remains very low, which ordinarily would put pressure on companies to raise pay to attract and retain workers. But other evidence suggests that the labor market has softened even without a big increase in joblessness. Employers are posting fewer job openings, are adding fewer new jobs and are poaching fewer employees from competitors, all signs that demand for workers has slowed.

Persons: ”, Beth Ann Bovino, Michael Gapen Organizations: Workers, “, U.S . Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: joblessness

☆ U.S. Economy Grew at 2.4% Rate in Second Quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Instead, layoffs were mostly contained to a handful of industries, the banking crisis did not spread and even the housing market has begun to stabilize. “The things we were all freaked out about earlier this year all went away,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said on Wednesday that the central bank’s staff economists no longer expected a recession to begin this year. Still, many economists say consumers are likely to pull back their spending in the second half of the year, putting a drag on the recovery. And although unemployment remains low, job growth and wage growth have slowed.

Persons: ”, Michael Gapen, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Tech, Bank of America, Fed, Savings

Time and again, predictions about ways in which the labor market had been permanently changed have proved temporary or even illusory. Women lost jobs early in the pandemic but have returned in record numbers, making the she-cession a short-lived phenomenon. Retirements spiked along with coronavirus deaths, but many older workers have come back to the job market. In a historically strong labor market with very low unemployment, workers have a lot more power than is typical, so they are winning better wages and new perks. And a shift toward working from home for many white-collar jobs is still reshaping the economy in subtle but important ways.

Persons: he’s

Last year, as policymakers relentlessly raised interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in decades, forecasters began talking as though a recession — economic contraction rather than growth — was not a question of “if” but “when.” Possibly in 2022. As recently as December, less than a quarter of economists expected the United States to avoid a recession, a survey found. But the year is more than half over, and the recession is nowhere to be found. Not even in the housing market, the industry that is usually most sensitive to rising interest rates, which has shown signs of stabilizing after slumping last year. All of which is leading economists, after a year spent being surprised by the resilience of the recovery, to wonder whether a recession is coming at all.

Persons: ”, Diane Swonk Organizations: KPMG US Locations: United States

Tens of millions of Americans changed jobs over the past two years, a rare moment of worker power as employees demanded higher pay, and as employers, short on staff, often gave it to them. The tidal wave of quitting became known as the “great resignation.” Now, as the phenomenon seems to have fizzled out, the Times economic writer Ben Casselman discusses whether there have been any lasting benefits for American workers.

Persons: ”, Ben Casselman

☆ The ‘Great Resignation’ Is Over. Can Workers’ Power Endure?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Wage growth has slowed, especially in the low-paying service jobs where it surged as turnover peaked in late 2021 and early 2022. Employers, though still complaining of labor shortages, report that it has gotten easier to hire and retain workers. Ms. Richardson compared the labor market to a game of musical chairs: When the economy began to recover from pandemic shutdowns, workers were able to move between jobs freely. “Everyone knows the music is about to stop,” Ms. Richardson said. Ms. Moya, 38, became one of the millions of Americans to start a small business during the pandemic.

Persons: ”, Nela Richardson, Ms, Richardson, ” Aubrey Moya, —, Moya Organizations: Employers

☆ Consumer Spending Stalled Last Month
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Consumer spending slowed sharply last month — good news for policymakers worried about inflation, but also a sign that a crucial engine of the economic recovery could finally be losing steam. U.S. consumers spent just 0.1 percent more in May than the month before, the Commerce Department said Friday. Adjusted for inflation, spending in May was flat. And while the figures can bounce around from month to month, forecasters expect spending to continue to cool as rising interest rates and dwindling savings take a toll on consumers’ pocketbooks. The surprising resilience of consumer spending is a big part of the reason that the economy has so far defied predictions of a recession.

Persons: ’ Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Economic Data Points to Faster Growth Early in Year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The NewsThe United States economy grew faster early this year than previously believed. That was a significant upward revision from the 1.1 percent growth rate in preliminary data released in April. (An earlier revision, released last month, showed a slightly stronger rate of 1.3 percent.) An alternative measure of growth, based on income rather than production, painted a different picture, showing that the economy contracted for the second quarter in a row. That spending, fueled by a strong job market and rising wages, helped offset declines in other sectors of the economy like business investment and housing.

Persons: ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst, Young Organizations: United, Gross, Commerce Department, EY Locations: United States

☆ William E. Spriggs, Economist Who Pushed for Racial Justice, Dies at 68
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

“Bill was somebody who was deeply committed to the idea that we do economics because we have a social purpose,” William A. Darity Jr., a Duke University economist and longtime friend, said in a phone interview. But the topic he came back to most frequently, and spoke most passionately about, was that of racial disparities in the labor market. Black Americans, he pointed out time and again, consistently experienced unemployment at double the rate of white people — a troubling fact that he argued got too little attention among economists. “Modern economics has a deep and painful set of roots that too few economists acknowledge,” Dr. Spriggs wrote. “In the hands of far too many economists, it remains with the assumption that African Americans are inferior until proven otherwise.”

Persons: Bill, William A, Darity Jr, Dr, Spriggs, George Floyd, —, “, ” Organizations: Duke University, Social Security, New York Times

Three major chemical companies on Friday said they would pay more than $1 billion to settle the first in a wave of claims that they and other companies contaminated drinking water across the country with so-called forever chemicals that have been linked to cancer and other illnesses. The companies — Chemours, DuPont and Corteva — said they had reached an agreement in principle to set up a $1.19 billion fund to help remove toxic perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, from public drinking water systems. Bloomberg News also reported on Friday that 3M had reached a tentative deal worth “at least $10 billion” with U.S. cities and towns to resolve related PFAS claims. Sean Lynch, a spokesman for 3M, declined to comment on the report, which cited people familiar with the deal without naming them. They have sought billions of dollars in damages to deal with the health impacts and the cost of cleaning up and monitoring polluted sites.

Persons: —, Corteva —, “, Sean Lynch Organizations: DuPont, Bloomberg News, 3M

☆ The U.S. Job Market Defies Expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

American employers added 339,000 jobs last month, according to data released today — a surprisingly strong showing. The notable increase from the previous month reaffirmed the job market’s vigor despite a swirl of economic headwinds. But even as the growth of the U.S. economy slowed a bit, the overall picture has remained rosier than expected. Still, many forecasters expect a recession to begin by the end of the year. Today’s report complicates the picture for the Federal Reserve, which had signaled that it could hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting.

Persons: Ben Casselman Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Inflation Inched Higher in April, Reflecting Challenge for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Madeleine Ngo | Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Still, prices are not climbing as fast they were in February, when the index rose 5.1 percent on an annual basis. A “core” measure that tries to gauge underlying inflation trends by stripping out volatile food and energy prices rose 4.7 percent over the year through April, up slightly from 4.6 percent in March. The core measure rose 0.4 percent in April from the prior month, up from 0.3 percent in March. That was slightly faster than some analysts had expected. Core inflation had been rising at a faster pace earlier in the year, climbing 0.6 percent in January.

☆ Consumer Spending Rose More Than Expected in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Americans’ income and spending both rose in April, a sign of economic resilience amid rising prices and warnings of a possible recession. Consumer spending increased 0.8 percent in April, the Commerce Department said Friday. The uptick followed a two-month slowdown in spending and exceeded forecasters’ expectations, as Americans shelled out for cars, restaurant meals, movie tickets and other goods and services. After-tax income rose 0.4 percent, fueled by a strong job market that continues to push up wages and bring more people into the work force. Data from the Labor Department this month showed that Americans in their prime working years were employed in April at the highest rate in more than two decades.

☆ More Americans Are Struggling Financially, as Inflation Takes a Toll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Americans have jobs. The share of U.S. adults who said they were doing “at least OK financially” fell sharply last year, to 73 percent from 78 percent in 2021, according to the latest Federal Reserve survey of Americans’ financial well-being, released on Monday. The erosion in financial health was broad-based, cutting across racial and ethnic lines, educational categories and income groups. The data, from the Fed’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, echoes other surveys showing that Americans feel glum about the economy and their own finances. But it provides new details on how the economic crosscurrents of a strong job market and rising prices are affecting families.

☆ Even Flirting With U.S. Default Takes Economic Toll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Lydia Depillis | Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

As negotiations over the debt limit continue in Washington and the date on which the U.S. government could be forced to stop paying some bills draws closer, everyone involved has warned that such a default would have catastrophic consequences. But it might not take a default to damage the U.S. economy. Even if a deal is struck before the last minute, the long uncertainty could drive up borrowing costs and further destabilize already shaky financial markets. It could lead to a pullback in investment and hiring by businesses when the U.S. economy is already facing elevated risks of a recession, and hamstring the financing of public works projects. More broadly, the standoff could diminish long-term confidence in the stability of the U.S. financial system, with lasting repercussions.

☆ The U.S. Job Market Remains Unexpectedly Strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Surprising job numbersThe American labor market is proving to be unexpectedly resilient despite some big headwinds, including the Federal Reserve’s attempts to slow down the economy by hiking interest rates. Data released today showed that employers added 253,000 jobs last month, far more than expected. Wages rose and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4 percent, matching January’s level, which was the lowest since 1969. “I don’t make predictions,” my colleague Ben Casselman told me. “But honestly, I was bracing for this morning’s report to show a sharp downturn, and instead it showed the opposite.”The job market’s continued strength is a problem for Fed officials, who are hoping that the broader economy will cool off in order to tame inflation.

☆ Wages and Prices Slow Unevenly, Reflecting ‘Rocky and Bumpy’ Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Ben Casselman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation isn’t as high as it was last year. The economy is slowing down. But none of this is happening as quickly or as smoothly as Federal Reserve officials would like. “We knew that inflation was going to be rocky and bumpy,” said Megan Greene, chief economist for the Kroll Institute. That was the slowest pace of inflation in nearly two years, down from a peak of 7 percent last summer.

☆ Wages Continue to Grow, Good for Workers but a Worry for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Wage growth remained strong in early 2023 — good news for workers trying to keep up with the rising cost of living, but a likely source of concern for Federal Reserve officials as they try to tamp down inflation without causing a recession. Wages and salaries for private-sector U.S. workers were up 5.1 percent in March from a year earlier, and up 1.2 percent from December, the Labor Department said Friday. That was the same growth rate as in December, and defied forecasters’ expectations of a modest slowdown. The Fed has been raising interest rates for more than a year in an effort to cool off the economy and bring down inflation. Companies have begun posting fewer job openings, and previously overheated sectors of the economy, like housing and tech, have cooled dramatically.

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